🤔 How have the pandemic and war impacted macro variables, stocks, and commodities?
As the old saying goes, a picture is worth a thousand words. That's why I've prepared these charts for you, covering the last five years (2018-2022) of various macroeconomic indicators. Just take a look and you'll see how things were before the (COVID-19) pandemic and (Ukraine-Russia) war hit, how they were affected, and where they stand today. No need for me to interrupt the flow with any more words - the charts speak for themselves!
💲 Dollar
Stimulus boost during the pandemic gave the Dollar a bit of a knock, but as soon as war reared its ugly head, the greenback showed its true strength as a store of value.
⚖️ Balance of Trade
No doubt this sudden rise in dollar value had an impact on the balance of trade - all of a sudden, imports were practically a steal!
🛢️ Oil
First, there was the pandemic and all those lockdowns, leading to no demand and no price for oil. But then the war came along and suddenly there was no oil available, and people would pay any price to get their hands on it. Talk about a volatile commodity!
🪙 Gold
Ah, good old gold. It may not be the newest kid on the block, but it's certainly proven its value in uncertain times. While other currencies and commodities have been bouncing all over the place, gold remained steady and strong.
🌾 Wheat
So, the war came along and suddenly we found ourselves asking the all-important question: what about food? After all, Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of wheat. The prices shot up. But it looks like things have returned to normal on the wheat front. Phew, crisis averted.
🤑 US CPI
Well, it seems that with all the stimulus and quantitative easing going on, inflation was pretty much a given. I mean, you can't just print more money and expect everything to stay the same price, right?
🏦 Fed Fund Rate
Well, low-interest rates gave us a nice little case of inflation, and now high-interest rates are trying to bring it under control. But will they succeed? Only time will tell.
😨 10Y minus 2Y Treasury Bond Yield
Inverse Yield: It looks like people are more confident about putting their money in the long-term rather than the short-term right now. But what does this mean for the next two years?
😥 Unemployment Rate
Looks like the labor market is still going strong - plenty of work to be done! Let's get to it!
🚜 Real GDP
Lockdowns may have shut us down for a bit, but we've bounced back. The nation's back in action!
📈 S&P 500
With a rough start during the pandemic, the stock market rallied in 2020 and 2021. But 2022 seems to have taken a bit of the wind out of its sails - at least, as far as the gains of 2021 are concerned.
📉 VIX
Wow, the VIX sure has had a wild ride with the pandemic and the war, and everything else going on. Here's hoping it gets a chance to catch its breath soon! But with inflation and interest rates potentially throwing a wrench in the works, it's hard to say if that will actually happen.
🌐 Bitcoin
Unprecedented gains, followed by unprecedented losses. Well, it's been quite a ride for crypto these past few years. Who knows if we'll ever see anything like it again?
PS. I wish you and yours a happy 2023. Here's hoping the next few years are a little less eventful (but just as interesting)!
