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Weekly IP #11
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Weekly IP #11

Ajay Chahal
Dec 23, 2022
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Weekly IP #11
elfreds.substack.com

๐Ÿ™‹ Consumer confidence in the US increased in December to its highest level since April, following consecutive declines in October and November. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 108.3 in December, with consumers becoming more optimistic about the economy and job prospects. Inflation expectations also fell to their lowest level since September, driven by a drop in gas prices. However, plans to purchase homes and big-ticket appliances cooled further, with consumers shifting their preference to services. Inflation and interest rate hikes are expected to continue to be headwinds in 2023.

๐Ÿง‘โ€๐ŸŒพ US farmers and related industries are experiencing a turnaround due to rising prices for crops and animal products, leading to an expected record high of $160.5 billion in net farm income in 2022. Crop and animal product cash receipts are also expected to increase significantly, and cropland values have reached a record high. However, farmers will need to cope with higher costs for supplies and machinery.

๐Ÿ˜๏ธ The US housing market has been facing challenges due to high costs and low demand, leading to decreases in housing starts and building permits. Existing home sales have also declined for the past 10 months, but the median sales price has increased consistently for the past 129 months. The market remains constrained by low inventories and difficulties faced by homebuilders.

๐Ÿ“ฐ In other news, US companies are turning to contract workers in response to recession fears. Chinese banks have also outpaced Wall Street rivals in global IPO rankings, with China seeing a record year for IPOs as the global market has collapsed. Dealmakers are anticipating a slow recovery in 2023 following a decline in global M&A activity.


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